When Dr Namadi Lawal, Technical Lead for Polio Surveillance at Nigeria's National Emergency Operations Center unveiled a nationwide push to tighten disease detection, the stakes couldn’t be higher: the country aims to clinch polio eradication by the end of 2025. The rollout, backed by the World Health Organization and other Global Polio Eradication Initiative partners, hinges on rapid surveillance assessments (RSAs) that hunt down suspected cases in weeks, not months.
Background: Nigeria’s lingering polio challenge
Despite being declared polio‑free in 2020, Nigeria still wrestles with circulating vaccine‑derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2). In 2024 the nation accounted for roughly 36% of the world’s 265 cVDPV2 cases, and early 2025 data show 32 confirmed infections across ten states, clustered in the northwest and northeast. The persistence reflects gaps in both acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) reporting and environmental surveillance (ES), especially in hard‑to‑reach communities.
Environmental surveillance, which involves sampling wastewater for viral RNA, has become a linchpin of the country’s strategy. Samples are collected each morning between 6:00 am and 6:30 am, a narrow window chosen because the virus degrades quickly once exposed to heat.
Rapid Surveillance Assessments take off in Jigawa
Between August 23‑29, 2025, Jigawa State hosted its inaugural RSA. The assessment spanned five Local Government Areas and 14 health facilities, including the flagship General Hospital in Dutse. Twenty‑four community informants—Village Health Workers, CHIPS agents, and Volunteer Community Mobilizers—were enlisted to verify 12 AFP cases, probing the depth of reporting sensitivity.
"These assessments ensure Nigeria's surveillance remains highly sensitive," said Dr Lawal. "The lessons from Jigawa will guide corrective actions and strengthen surveillance in other states." The exercise uncovered a well‑coordinated grassroots network, but also highlighted delayed sample transport in two remote LGAs, prompting an immediate logistics review.
The RSA’s success sparked optimism among donors. Dr Kofi Boateng, WHO Polio Eradication Programme Cluster Lead in Nigeria emphasized, "WHO is working side by side with the Government of Nigeria to close surveillance gaps and sustain progress. These interventions are expected to improve case detection, guide vaccination responses, and keep Nigeria on track to achieve its eradication goal this year."
Scaling up across the north and south
Riding the Jigawa momentum, RSAs are slated for Borno, Katsina, Lagos, Sokoto and Zamfara between October and December 2025. Each will mirror Jigawa’s blueprint: a three‑day field sprint, engagement of at least 20 community informants, and a post‑assessment debrief with state health ministries.
Authorities expect the northern states—home to the bulk of cVDPV2 cases—to benefit most. In Sokoto and Zamfara, for instance, recent ES collections flagged viral fragments in two wastewater sites, yet AFP reporting lagged behind. The upcoming RSAs will thrust local health officers into a rapid‑feedback loop, compressing the time from suspicion to vaccination response from weeks to days.
Meanwhile, the Lagos RSA will test the model in an urban setting, where population density and migration patterns pose different hurdles. "Urban surveillance demands real‑time data dashboards," noted a Lagos state health official, who asked to remain unnamed. "If we can plug those gaps, the ripple effect will be nationwide."
Genomic sequencing advances in Ibadan
Crucial to the whole effort is the newly accredited WHO Nigeria Virology Laboratory in Ibadan. Accredited in February 2025, the lab now joins Ghana and South Africa as the only African nations able to independently sequence poliovirus.
"The typical turnaround time for the laboratory is about four days after receiving the virus isolate, and then two‑to‑three additional days for quality‑control review before the result is released," explained Professor Georgina Odaibo, WHO Nigeria Virology Lab containment officer. "That speed is a game‑changer for directing targeted immunisation campaigns."
Samples travel from remote collection points to Ibadan within 24 hours, thanks to a dedicated cold‑chain courier service funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The lab’s capacity to produce whole‑genome sequences on‑site reduces reliance on European reference centres, slashing both cost and latency.
Implications for Africa’s polio‑free status
Should Nigeria meet its 2025 deadline, the continent could proudly sustain the polio‑free status first declared in 2020. The country's contribution—accounting for roughly a quarter of Africa’s 2025 cases—means any breakthrough reverberates regionally.
Experts from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative caution that complacency would invite resurgence. "Polio doesn’t respect borders," warned a senior GPEI epidemiologist. "If Nigeria seals its gaps, neighboring Chad and Niger will reap the benefits automatically."
Beyond health, the surveillance upgrades bolster broader disease‑alert systems. Community health workers trained for polio detection are now equipped to flag measles, yellow fever, and even emerging zoonoses, creating a multi‑disease net that could save countless lives.
What comes next?
- Complete RSAs in the five pending states by December 2025.
- Deploy a digital dashboard that aggregates AFP, ES, and sequencing data in real‑time.
- Scale the community informant model to all 36 states, targeting at least 5 informants per LGA.
- Conduct a mid‑2026 independent audit to verify surveillance sensitivity meets the WHO‑defined minimum 80% detection rate.
Funding remains a linchpin. While WHO, UNICEF, AFENET, Rotary International, the Gates Foundation and Gavi have pledged support, the government is expected to allocate an incremental $22 million to sustain field operations beyond 2025.
All eyes are on the upcoming RSA reports. If they confirm tightened detection nets and rapid vaccine roll‑outs, Nigeria could finally close the chapter on polio—a triumph that would echo far beyond its borders.
Frequently Asked Questions
How will the rapid surveillance assessments affect vaccination campaigns?
By flagging AFP cases and positive wastewater samples within days, RSAs let health officials dispatch targeted oral‑polio‑vaccines to the exact neighborhoods where the virus is circulating, cutting the response window from weeks to under ten days.
What distinguishes the Ibadan virology lab from other regional facilities?
It is one of only three African labs accredited to sequence poliovirus in‑house, handling the entire workflow—from sample receipt to genome assembly—within a week, whereas previously isolates were shipped overseas for analysis, adding weeks of delay.
Why does Nigeria still see so many cVDPV2 cases despite previous eradication claims?
cVDPV2 emerges when oral‑polio‑vaccine strains revert in under‑immunised populations. Gaps in routine immunisation, especially in the north‑west, allow the weakened virus to spread, creating the reported clusters in Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi and Katsina.
What role do community health workers play in the new surveillance model?
They act as the first line of detection, reporting suspected AFP cases within hours, collecting stool samples, and liaising with local labs. Their grassroots presence also boosts community trust, encouraging families to report symptoms promptly.
How does Nigeria’s polio effort tie into broader African health security?
A robust surveillance network creates a template for other infectious‑disease monitoring systems across the continent, improving early warning capacities for diseases like measles, yellow fever and future pandemic threats.
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